Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 230.577092 281.540695 345.071688 431.583818 548.726515 7.055165e+02 9.378982e+02
2025-06-22 171.131981 228.490376 309.406745 436.757338 642.104056 9.805172e+02 1.631881e+03
2025-06-29 140.789532 200.159113 291.746627 452.795001 752.468836 1.347129e+03 2.834357e+03
2025-07-06 117.596110 174.752687 268.792246 448.536139 823.313719 1.694997e+03 4.495221e+03
2025-07-13 108.203719 168.119363 273.426753 493.403055 1014.461987 2.482332e+03 9.128597e+03
2025-07-20 100.051721 161.410161 275.550131 533.630840 1222.780659 3.582910e+03 1.970058e+04
2025-07-27 92.368762 153.779622 273.663016 564.258299 1430.876652 5.039396e+03 4.559285e+04
2025-08-03 84.891188 145.038147 267.273924 581.789513 1617.389274 6.831486e+03 1.144997e+05
2025-08-10 77.692849 135.566940 257.143241 586.100230 1767.486464 8.887860e+03 3.223249e+05
2025-08-17 70.475190 124.942134 242.279422 572.397492 1843.379692 1.078450e+04 9.713511e+05
2025-08-24 64.162433 115.298681 227.864592 555.501864 1897.999868 1.284177e+04 4.127855e+06
2025-08-31 58.680420 106.692477 214.393409 537.448130 1938.215328 1.510090e+04 4.172665e+07
2025-09-07 57.544129 107.392299 224.047785 598.965096 2459.649192 2.795511e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 53.882042 102.086024 217.718901 605.017892 2696.863889 4.023490e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 51.333406 98.932797 216.387248 629.166086 3099.145204 6.734935e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 47.946879 93.431798 207.752592 622.523204 3285.358843 9.592162e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 47.321514 94.286333 216.823778 691.795534 4245.253688 2.720975e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 46.360204 94.198602 223.246022 754.687606 5370.615616 1.005216e+06 NaN
2025-10-19 44.992529 92.927215 225.920875 803.041716 6550.736340 5.650643e+06 NaN
2025-10-26 43.232340 90.449090 224.407618 830.897322 7619.588183 7.797174e+07 NaN
2025-11-02 41.188727 87.013245 219.239974 837.766127 8443.286193 9.281287e+11 NaN
2025-11-09 38.789010 82.411658 209.547189 815.958020 8716.315367 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 36.509484 77.923499 199.594591 789.175737 8846.910022 NaN NaN